Wednesday - April 16, 2008

Mr. Vo's Neighborhood

My good friend Michael Quinn Sullivan has got a sweet gig.

Here he tackles the political humor of our day with an irreverent aplomb rarely seen outside of the work of the masters such as Messrs. Parker and Stone.

Posted by Chris Elam @ 04/16/08 11:05 PM | Comments (0)

Wednesday - April 09, 2008

Olson Wins By More Than 2-1

Uhhh... raise your hand if you saw that one coming.

Even though I was rooting for Pete Olson, I sure didn't. Jaw dropping victory.

Now the debate begins... was that a pro-Pete victory, or an anti-Shelley defeat? I'm convinced its more of the latter, but of course, all the revisionists will tell you that it was because they believed that big in Pete as a candidate.

I'm here to tell you - no they didn't. But they'll all slap him on the back anyhow and cozy up all nice and neat heading into November. Ahhh, politics.

YAY! No More Shelley!!!! That was the longest two year campaign I've ever seen and I'm so happy its over.

Posted by Chris Elam @ 04/09/08 12:16 AM | Comments (5)

Friday - April 04, 2008

Quick Look-See At Early Voting Numbers

There are going to be a lot of disappointed people in Fort Bend if Dr. Shelley gets a runoff victory simply because there are three other races happening in the Harris County portion of CD22. Since she whipped Pete Olson's vote totals by a 2.5 to 1 ratio in the primary in Harris County, these numbers are a sure sign that Olson's GOTV efforts in Fort Bend are about to be ramped up to deafening volume this weekend.

Through Thursday, April 3rd...

Fort Bend County - 2,635 GOP early votes cast in person. 869 votes by mail. My best guess from looking at the totals by voting location leads me to assume that >90% of these votes are in CD22.

Harris County - Harder to figure since only three early voting locations fall in CD22 boundaries, yet the county has 35 overall places to vote. Those three locations are reporting 3,211 votes cast out of the county's total of 11,260. 7,368 mail in ballots have been returned to the county, so let's reasonably agree on a ratio of 1:4 of those ballots being in CD22 for a nice rounded-off number approaching 1850 votes.

No data exists online for Galveston and Brazoria counties because they languish in the dark ages at their respective County Clerk's offices.

Bad juju for Olson, but not wholly unexpected from any of his supporters. Bless them for trying to get supporters out to the polls, but each one of them I've talked to in the past weeks realizes the mountain of sheer “us vs. them” demographics which they must overcome for him to get the win.

Posted by Chris Elam @ 04/04/08 02:46 PM | Comments (1)

Monday - March 31, 2008

What's With All The Bad Political Signs Lately?

Although I think she is going to win in a cakewalk, future Sugar Land City Council member Jacquie Chaumette has a very uh.... interesting look to her political signs.

They say that Name ID is everything in politics, but usually it helps to visibly identify which political position you are seeking when running for small-time office.

If anybody has any experience in printing or graphic design, I don't have to tell you what a fit the poor screen printers must have had trying to register this design. Nor how much extra money Mrs. Chaumette had to pay for the privilege of having yellow lines on her signs. Yikes.

Posted by Chris Elam @ 03/31/08 05:57 PM | Comments (0)

“Poking” Fun At The C-Club

Now everybody knows that I'm in marketing, and that I have been working in marketing since the day I graduated from A&M. I've worked retail marketing, political marketing, private-sector marketing, and I'd like to think that I have a good idea in what works, and what simply looks silly. And in rare cases, what falls into the category of just plain stupid.

Back on March 7th, three days after the March GOP primary - the local separatist wing of the party who have started calling themselves “the C-Club”, held their first fundraiser event and snagged Tony Snow into town to speak.

Not much has been reported or heard from out of this event, so I was interested to read their Chairman's account of the night's festivities in our little local interest magazine, Fort Bend Lifestyle and Homes.

Here's a key quote from Mayor Wallace's article:

“The purpose of the Fort Bend C-Club is to provide a forum to promote an environment in which fiscally conservative Republican candidates, possessing high moral principles and a clear vision of the future can be elected.”

I've got to be honest with you, dear readers. I never actually got to read that far into the story to find this lofty and ambitious statement because when I found this article, I immediately started rolling in laughter and disbelief.

You see... I came across a marketing goof, and have no better excuse than to admit that I was distracted by the bold choice of the C-Club's communications and marketing decision making team to place a picture of Tony Snow with members of the St. Thomas Episcopal Drum/Pipes Band, next to their quote about providing an environment with high moral principles.

See below.

I'm assuming that whoever sent this picture to the FBLH magazine, did not have the photoshop skills to artificially insert ring fingers into the two young men on the outside of the Tony Snow photo. That, or they were simply too culturally out of touch and ignorant to realize what was happening in the photo.

Too funny.

Posted by Chris Elam @ 03/31/08 05:45 PM | Comments (3)

Saturday - March 29, 2008

News from Senatorial District 17 - Austen Furse for SD17

Relatively ho-hum Senatorial District 17 caucus meeting through 12:45pm, here at Sugar Creek Baptist Church gymnasium.

Have heard from all three Sugar Land Mayoral candidates, two at-large city council candidates, Kyle Janek, Charlie Howard, Judge Shoemake, Judge Vacek, and a new candidate.

We have our first announced Republican candidate to replace the soon-departing Kyle Janek. I see that a Harris County SD17 blogger has already broke the news to the blogosphere.

Anyhow, new guy. His name is Austen Furse, and he is a Harris County resident. Here are some Google highlights on his resume (this one from his 1997 wedding announcement in the NY Times archives.).

From 1989 to 1993, Mr. Furse was the assistant director and then the director of White House policy planning under President George Bush. The bridegroom is a son of Mr. and Mrs. Furse Jr. of Austin, Tex. His father retired as an assistant attorney general of Texas in Austin. The bridegroom's mother, Margaret Furse, retired as a professor of American studies at the University of Texas in Austin.

Other initial highlights from Google are sparse, the initial highlight I saw from the FEC records indidate that Furse gave $2300 to Mitt Romney's campaign this year.

Obviously Furse becomes anointed as the follow-up to Spencer Tillman from Kyle Janek's campaign team, speaking with him just now he is happy to have Court Koenning (Dan Patrick's former chief of staff and campaign strategist) working in tandem with Allen Blakemore to strategize the campaign. A plus on his campaign side is that he is reported to have access to large $$$. There is word in this convention that there is yet another unannounced candidate who is in line to seek the seat and who has access to larger $$$$ - hard to go against the Blakemore / Patrick team that seems to be forming, but I'll pass along if I get a name.

I'd have to think its mighty tempting for Scott Hochberg to jump in this race since he will not have to spend Dollar One to be the top vote getter going into a runoff in December. Plus he won't have to give up his House seat to run.

Could be fun to watch!

Posted by Chris Elam @ 03/29/08 01:12 PM | Comments (5)

Sunday - March 23, 2008

A&M vs. UCLA

Yes, we should have been able to put away the Bruins, blah blah blah..

Yes, we should have made more than 3 out of 7 free throws, blah blah blah....

Yes, we should have made more than 2 out of 10 3-pointers, blah blah blah....

And yes, we should have been able to come up with a couple of baskets down the stretch when UCLA was making their run, blah blah blah....

A&M did not make enough plays down the stretch to win that game.

That doesn't change my absolute disgust with the referees after seeing this photo:
null

Yes, my friends. That's Donald Sloan taking the final shot to send the game to overtime. The refs called NOTHING. Ridiculous.

I'm not saying we would have won. But that was a last second shot to put the game into overtime, and that was taken away from that Ags due to bad officiating. That is inexcusable.

Bravo to the Ags on a good season, and let's hope that Coach Turgeon can get the fellas to play a little more consistently next year.

Posted by Drew Dornburg @ 03/23/08 11:25 PM | Comments (0)

Bad Mailer Gaffes from Daniel Wong Campaign

There have been some direct mail fiascos in the past few months from various campaigns, but I don't think much can top what I got in the mail from the Daniel Wong for Sugar Land Mayor campaign this afternoon.

Join Daniel Wong For Lunch

Meet Me at
Sugar Creek County Club
420 Sugar Creek Blvd.
Saturday - March 22, 2008
from 11:00 a.m. to 1:00 p.m.

We'll Eat,
Then We Can
Discuss The Issues

I received this mailer at 3pm, Saturday - March 22, 2008. Yikes. To make matters worse, it appears that this mailer was sent to all of Sugar Land because the back of the mailer explicitly states that “I'm sending this invitation to ALL households in Sugar Land”. That's a tough postage check to eat if it indeed arrived across the city as late as mine.

Wong's mailer goes on and lists the following issues as topics of discussion at the meeting: Keeping Us Dry, Keeping Us Safe, Keeping Us Moving, Helping Us Remember (?), Working to Improve Education. I'm quite curious to know what I've forgotten, but since I got the mailer so late, I may never know. How depressing.

And finally, to compound the issue even further, the date of the election is listed on this mailer as May 20, 2008. The City of Sugar Land election is actually being held on May 10, 2008.

Ouchy-wa-wa.

Posted by Chris Elam @ 03/23/08 12:02 AM | Comments (2)

Saturday - March 22, 2008

A Personal Request From Me

Christy and I are building a new house which we will move into later this summer. So in the interest of our young and growing family - please tell all your friends and relatives about a 3 BR / 2 BA w/study, - gorgeous - home for sale by owner in the middle of First Colony in Sugar Land, Texas.

There are more pictures and details available along with a video tour at the following website I created - www.yournewsugarlandhome.com.

If you refer somebody to me who ends up buying the home, I'll throw a nice finder's fee your way - and that's a promise.

Posted by Chris Elam @ 03/22/08 05:44 PM | Comments (0)

Did GOP Voters Cross Over to the Dems in Fort Bend County?

Back from a Spring Break trip to Las Vegas with the wife and some friends. Apologies for no blogging.

There's been some huge debate over whether or not there was a massive crossover vote from Republicans to the Democrats three weeks ago on the March 4, 2008 primary. Speculation over the cause of such defection ranges from whether voters are tired of the GOP, or if they were trying to ensure that the worst Democrat candidate possible matched up against McCain in November.

Regardless of motivation, here's what Microsoft Access tells me happened by raw numbers, courtesy of my brand spankin' new CD of voter history from the Fort Bend County Elections Office. Thanks to Mandi Bronsell for picking it up for me while I was out of town.

Total GOP turnout on March 4, 2008 was 34,665 voters.

Total Democrat turnout on March 4, 2008 was 66,813 voters.

There were 5,444 people who have voter history of having cast a GOP March primary vote anytime from 2000-2006, who voted Democrat on March 4, 2008. That represents * 15.70% * of the total 2008 GOP turnout and * 8.14% * of the total 2008 Democrat turnout.

Breaking it down further by year...

There were 3,242 people who voted GOP in March 2006, and voted Democrat in March 2008. That represents * 9.35% * of the total 2008 GOP turnout and * 4.85% * of the total 2008 Democrat turnout.

There were 1,195 people who voted GOP in March 2004, and voted Democrat in March 2008. That represents * 3.44% * of the total 2008 GOP turnout and * 1.79% * of the total 2008 Democrat turnout.

There were 1,625 people who voted GOP in March 2002, and voted Democrat in March 2008. That represents * 4.69% * of the total 2008 GOP turnout and * 2.43% * of the total 2008 Democrat turnout.

There were 2,052 people who voted GOP in March 2000, and voted Democrat in March 2008. That represents * 5.92% * of the total 2008 GOP turnout and * 3.07% * of the total 2008 Democrat turnout.

These number represents what I would call a massive crossover vote, given how indisposed Republican primary voters are to party-switching. For somewhat of a comparative point of reference, refer back to this post I made in 2006 regarding the discussion of whether or not Democrats were switching over to the Republican party.

Obviously these numbers are not exclusive of each other, meaning that its possible that there is a great deal of voter overlap between the different voting years. Any further breakdowns by precinct or geographical area, I'm willing to entertain - just leave a request in the comments.

Posted by Chris Elam @ 03/22/08 05:42 PM | Comments (2)

Saturday - March 15, 2008

Buc-ee's Blog

Via Rob Booth. Buc-ee's has a blog. Sweet.

For those of you who aren't fans of the beaver and his fabulously clean restrooms - I would recommend giving them a try. I always stop at the uber-Buc-ee's in Lake Jackson, and the mega-Buc-ee's in Luling off of I-10. They offer up great jerky and those tasty little sweetened corn puffs that are so addictive. Top it off with a giant red slushie and you've got your trip home covered. At both the mega- and uber-Buc-ee's, you can go to a touch-screen computer and input your custom made breakfast burrito order to go!

Word is that they are expanding to build a location off of Crabb River Road in Greatwood. Heaven help me.

I'm suddenly filled with the urge to road trip.

Posted by Chris Elam @ 03/15/08 01:12 PM | Comments (1)

Tuesday - March 11, 2008

Best Wishes To James Patterson

Who I learned tonight, is about to undergo bypass heart surgery this week.

I hope that your surgery is successful, your pain minimal, and your recovery time short.

Posted by Chris Elam @ 03/11/08 09:42 PM | Comments (1)

Saturday - March 08, 2008

Raise Your Hand If You Still Want February Primaries

Anyone?

Remember folks, it was DEMOCRAT activists who began the call for a February Super Tuesday primary date, as far back as February 2007. At first, the Texas GOP resisted the urge, but

Ahhh... let's recap the arguments in favor of joining the Super Tuesday crowd.

- “We're tired of Texas being a giant ATM!” - I'm guessing that all those presidential ads, giant rallies, recorded phone calls, direct mailers, and yard signs - didn't come free.

- “March is too late to make a difference in the Presidential race!” - Well, yes. That is, if your candidate's name is John Edwards or Bill Richardson.

- “Texas will lose its electoral clout if we don't have a Super Tuesday primary!” - By the way, how ARE you kids coming on counting your caucus results? LOL

- “Primary participation is shrinking at an alarming rate!” - See what I did there? I saved the most ironic one for last. Its super wicked funny because in real life - the opposite happened! Yay! Overcrowded school cafeteria bench seat cauci for everyone!

And don't think that I've forgotten about you, Texas GOP leaders. You too got suckered into thinking that we needed to move up the primary date after you conducted your silly little survey of elected officials. This could just have easily been the month when you feverishly hoped that no one remembered your foolish and selfish desires to have more black-tie fundraisers, photo ops, and opportunities to get your name in the paper with moronic quotes about the excitement and buzz.

****************************
Honestly, what makes me happiest about Texas State Senators being smart enough to keep the primary in March is that I didn't have to sort through the insufferable daily glut of Dr. Shelley campaign mailers during Christmas.

Instead, I laughed my merry ass off at a six-month early campaign mailer, picturing Daniel Wong photoshopped in front of a pixellated Christmas tree with a campaign logo-laden Santa Hat superimposed on his head! It was exactly what I needed to make my Yuletide gay!

Posted by Chris Elam @ 03/08/08 02:12 AM | Comments (0)

Thursday - March 06, 2008

The Future of the Fort Bend County Republican Party

I've already made these concerns in private to several individuals, but I now make them publicly in an appeal to the future of my party.

I am concerned about the lack of participation and involvement in our county party from people my own age. I am concerned about walking into an Executive Committee meeting and being 20-25 years younger than the average person in the room.

I'm a conservative, and while I respect the positions of authority and knowledge that come with those who are older than me, I also know that the time is rapidly approaching when so many of my elders will no longer be actively participating in the process.

And please do not misunderstand me, I am not criticizing anyone for being in a position of authority while old enough to have actually voted for Barry Goldwater. I'm pleased and proud to call many of you my friends. But the face of our party must grow younger if we are to continue to be the dominant force in Fort Bend County politics. I'm excited to bring in some fellow Aggies like my good friend Drew Dornburg and a new friend, Mark McCaig - but the efforts need to be made by all Republicans to draw in more young adults and fresh faces.

I realize the struggles of competing against national dynamics, a presidential candidate closer to 90 than 50, and the current appeal of the Obama movement to my age group. But grassroots change starts locally, and I hope more of you will realize that we must reach out to my age group now, before they become disaffected, lulled into apathy, or convinced that the government is to be treated as one big financial teat.

Hit me up for ideas at the next Communications Committee meeting or Executive Committee meeting on how we can do this.

Posted by Chris Elam @ 03/06/08 03:32 PM | Comments (13)

Fort Bend County Politics

First, an apology. At the time when the Fort Bend GOP really needed my voice in the blogosphere, I simply didn't have the time or energy to speak. I wish I could have, I really do. I tried my best to make up for the online absence by volunteering heavily with the party's Communications Committee, revamping the party's website, and providing an outlet for elected officials to vent. Since the blog was on hiatus, I think many of our local Republicans felt more comfortable about telling me secrets and strategies, without fear of it showing up online.

I'll try to be brief. I may come back to some of these points in greater detail in the future, but for right now, certain things need to be said and addressed in simple terms.

1) Good riddance to bad rubbish. Gary Gillen's resignation was unexpected, but quite welcome. The man simply gave up before he had to do any actual hard work with the primary election, and walked away from the responsibilities he signed up for when he ran for office. In my opinion, he is a very poor leader. In my opinion, he has always been in politics for self-aggrandizing purposes instead of promoting the Republican agenda. In my opinion, our county is better off with him playing at political consultant with Karen Vannerson Pearson, then in any position of real power.

2) Rick Miller is a fine man and a good replacement for Gary Gillen. The amount of work and responsibility that he shouldered over the past five months is staggering - remember that this is an unpaid position. He had no forewarning that he would be doing this work, but he had no qualms about stepping up and doing the job that had to be accomplished. I wish him the best over the next two years of his chairmanship, and I look forward to working with him over the next four months of my involvement with the Executive Committee.

3) I don't know how many times I have to say this before people believe me, but perhaps the vote totals will finally convince people. BEV CARTER AND HER COLUMN ARE POLITICALLY IRRELEVANT IN FORT BEND COUNTY. She drew targets on the back of her fellow C-Club member Milton Wright, and upon the back of St. Rep. Charlie Howard. Neither man had any trouble in dispatching their opponents. So please, please, candidates and elected officials. Do not think that you must kowtow and kneel at Bev's feet to keep in her good graces. She can no longer deliver you a win, nor can she ensure your defeat. And she hasn't been able to do it in a long, long time.

4) I'm shocked that Andy Meyers didn't draw an opponent for the Pct. 3 Commissoner's slot. I mean, I'm totally shocked. And disappointed too... its always fun to see his opponents get excited about their chances of beating him until Pop and I gradually help pull him up to a victory in the modest 60% plus range.

5) Tom Stavinoha is in a tough spot. His precinct will be heavily redistricted after the 2010 census, but until then, new voters are challenging the traditional Czech base and decades-long draw of the Stavinoha name. He is believed to be suffering at the hands of anti-Grand Parkway activists, and it remains to be seen if Bill Dostal really wants to endorse the man he challenged. This will be a tight runoff, and the engineering interests are keeping a close eye on the fight.

6) GOP Precinct Chairs. Congratulations to my friend Mark McCaig on joining me on the Executive Committee for the first time. Congratulations also to my father-in-law, David Wood. Condolences to A.D. Muller, JoLynn Paschall, and Veniece Griffin - all past frequenters of this blogging establishment. Our good friend Pat Baig ekes into a runoff by one vote, and you better believe she's going to be touting up her candidacy in a door-to-door campaign throughout her neighborhood in the next few weeks. I can't help but wonder if that's really a good thing for her chances.

Posted by Chris Elam @ 03/06/08 03:21 PM | Comments (0)

Part 2 of 2 - CD22 Stories That Captured Our Attention

Re: The attacks on Olson... I guess there was one big surprise out of the election results on Tuesday night for me - that Olson did not receive a higher vote total. The vitriol and fervor with which he was being attacked from all sides was remarkable for a second-place candidate.

Backing up a bit... I know with a strong degree of certainty that February polls were commissioned by four candidates (Talton, Shelley, Olson, Hrbacek). None of these poll results were released to the public. The rumors were that the pecking order went: 1-Shelley, 2-Olson, 3-Hrbacek/Talton/Manlove - in other words, almost exactly what we came out with. (However, I remain convinced that these rumors were simply astute observations by those familiar with the political realities and expectations of the candidates.)

If Dr. Shelley is anything, she is widely known to be:

- Reactionary
- Abrasive
- A poorly focused communicator
- A fierce believer in her “Brand”

The order of the attacks matter little to me. Whether Hrbacek cast the first stone, or if it was Shelley, or if it was Talton - I don't care. Once the mud started flying, the e-mails were coming at a fast and furious pace. I never signed up for any of these candidates' e-mail blasts, but I do know that Olson's responses were coming at me using my very old e-mail address. I suspect this list came from John Cornyn's campaign, or perhaps through a Chris Homan connection (Tom DeLay's former consultant / chief of staff, and subsequently, Olson's consultant).

To even the most uninformed of political observers, this indicated that Olson was rapidly gaining in the polls, and gauging by the feverish pace at which the daily attacks were coming - I personally thought that Olson had surged into the lead according to the polling data. It turns out that I was partially right...

Up until March 4, Fort Bend County was the only portion of CD22 that mattered to any of the candidates. The vote totals in Harris County showed what all the consultants and observers clearly expected - a 3-way race between Shelley, Manlove, and Talton - each drawing from their own base of power. Fort Bend was the biggest piece of the pie still up in the air - Shelley hoping to build on her name ID, Olson hoping to overcome Hrbacek, Hrbacek hoping to build upon his long-established base of support, and Talton / Manlove (to their credit) relegated to doing real grassroots work to build up their numbers and support in a strange land.

Olson emerged with the highest vote total out of Fort Bend - 7,499 votes (nearly 30% of the total county vote). In my opinion, the fact that he “claims” residence here should not be given sole credit for that win. Whether or not it should be attributed to his hype, the inevitable public draw of his strong endorsements, or the hard work of the candidate himself - I simply don't know.

In a race with 10 candidates, I think you can hand out more than one “win” at the end of the primary contest. Certainly, Dr. Shelley scores a win with the highest vote total. But Olson scores a key win as well, in stealing the #1 spot away in Fort Bend County.

Going forward in the next five weeks, I think we'll see the following:

- SHARP decline in voter turnout for the runoff. 56,124 votes cast on Tuesday - my bet is on less than 25,000 in April.

- Olson will assume that he will carry Fort Bend County again in the runoff. If I were to lay odds on that assumption, I would say I'm 80% sure that he will.

- Dr. Shelley will assume that she will carry Harris County again in the runoff. I believe that is a 60% proposition, because...

- I believe that Talton and Manlove can better stomach the thought of an unknown quantity in Pete Olson, than they can the known quantity of Shelley Sekula Gibbs - the default candidate who is still riding the high of her 2006 name ID.

- I say this about Talton and Manlove, because I believe that the runoff campaign will become more about how each remaining candidate matches up against Nick Lampson, and I think both Talton and Manlove are realists upon the better matchup that Olson provides, as opposed to Dr. Shelley. I believe that Chris Homan has already strategized a plan for emphasizing that distinction.

- If Tom DeLay makes the headlines in the next five weeks, you heard it here first.

- I would not be surprised if a campaign mailer is launched against Dr. Shelley using Nick Lampson's image. Lampson is boasting to anybody who will listen, “I would much rather run against Shelley than anybody else.” I don't think he's stupid enough to be issuing such a challenge without some basis for that confidence.

Personally, I am uninspired and unexcited by either Pete Olson or Shelley Sekula Gibbs as my future Congressman/woman. Dr. Shelley, because I know her. Pete Olson, because I don't know him. Frankly, thousands of Republicans now face the same dilemma and will most likely turn to those they do know... Robert Talton, John Manlove, Dean Hrbacek, Cynthia Dunbar. Might they turn an ear to Dr. Phil Gramm and Senator John Cornyn as well?

Posted by Chris Elam @ 03/06/08 02:57 PM | Comments (0)

Part 1 of 2 - CD22 Stories That Captured Our Attention

The two stories of the race from the filing deadline, to the date of the primary were:

1) Dean Hrbacek's floating head
2) The concerted attack upon Pete Olson from Hrbacek / Shelley / Talton

Re: Hrbacek's head... To this day, I regret not being able to help my friend Dean Hrbacek on some of the elements of his race. I especially hate to see a decent, hard-working man embarrassed as he was as the result of someone else's poor photoshop techniques. Although I haven't asked him about this directly, I firmly believe that Dean was “snookered” by the hired help on this matter, and forced into a gang run situation where the graphic design had already been accomplished and put into production to save time and money. Once the floating head had been discovered by the national media, it was too late to stop it from happening again.

I have told this story to some people already, but I doubt its common knowledge so I will share here for public dissection. I was the first person to see the now infamous picture of Dean's face upon someone else's body. As the layout artist for the Fort Bend GOP Newsletter, the picture arrived in my e-mail inbox dated October 5, 2007, as part of a 1/2 page ad for the newsletter. Because I know Dean's appearance, and am familiar with these photoshop techniques, I spotted the doctored photo sometime around 4:30am in the middle of an all-night shift I was pulling in order to put together the ill-fated October 2007 FBCGOP Newsletter. I was too busy to make much more of it, and after staying up for over 36 hours, I just plain forgot about it later. I didn't think it was that big of a deal. And because that newsletter was never mailed (another post to come on that topic), the general public never saw it (although the newsletter was published in PDF format on the FBCGOP website).

As we all know, the story became a huge deal rather quickly, and then it was compounded because the same headshot was used several times in different poses and mailers. In my mind, this is a poor reflection upon the CONSULTANTS and DESIGN COMPANY employed by Hrbacek, not the candidate himself. I think the situation was compounded because Dean's precocious and out-of-town campaign manager, Scott Broschart, failed miserably in his initial response to media inquiries. He had the opportunity to deny any foreknowledge of the pic, and to simply blame the graphic designer for getting lazy and overambitious with their cut and paste skills. To do so, would have deflected much criticism.

However, if the photoshop job was done in order to create a nicer appearance for Dean, and the whole furor was in response to an intentional effort that was agreed upon by both the consultants, graphic designer, AND candidate - then I can be the first to charge that it was a grave mistake which cost the campaign dearly.

Posted by Chris Elam @ 03/06/08 02:24 PM | Comments (0)

Initial Thoughts on CD 22 GOP Primary

TEN CANDIDATES. It sounds like so many, but I was convinced that we were going to have more than that. The week of Christmas, I had heard of others who were interested and weighing their options, but thankfully and mercifully, decided not to make the run.

Since the dynamics of this race evolved after the beginning of this blog's hiatus, please allow me to begin this recap at the beginning of the race's convoluted (and ongoing) history.

Coming out of 2006, we knew that Dr. Shelley Sekula Gibbs was going to run once more for the nomination. At this time last year, I was convinced that her opponent would be Harris County Tax Assessor/Collector Paul Bettencourt, who would simply have wiped the floor with the pink dermatologist. To this day, its unclear to me why Bettencourt silently bowed out - the nomination was his for the low, low cost of a filing fee. The funding and the endorsements throughout the district were already there.

Summer 2007 rolls around, and I became aware of the first announced challenger, Dean Hrbacek through a series of private conversations and phone calls with the former mayor of Sugar Land. With our ever expanding roles in the Paul campaigns, we were unable to offer our services to Hrbacek as day to day consultants or campaign managers, as we simply couldn't guarantee our time would be available. Rather humorously, Dr. Shelley was still using Hrbacek's name as an endorsement for some months after I became aware of his intentions to run. I'm not sure at what point she actually decided to call these people back who had given her their support as the default candidate in 2006, but she must have been crestfallen when she found out how few friends she actually had among Fort Bend movers and shakers.

The months of September through December are very very hazy to me on this race, because I was literally working 18-20 hours a day for the Ron Paul campaign. If I caught wind of a new candidate, it was usually as late as a week or two after the whispers first began. I had always suspected that Robert Talton would enter the race as the Harris County challenger to Dr. Shelley, but I was unaware of John Manlove's intentions until he made them public.

Pete Olson came upon the scene with little more than the endorsement of my family friend Dr. Phil Gramm, the endorsement of John Cornyn, a picture of him with each gentleman, and a picture of him smiling in Navy whites. THAT'S ABOUT IT.

The other five candidates proved to be of little consequence to the overall race, and it was way too funny to see how easily flustered the 25 year old kid with the Barney-purple Corvette would get when teased about his young age. I think he ended up getting on with the Olson campaign, and good luck to him in finding a job - the pursuit of employment was clearly the only reason he was ever pretending to be a serious candidate.

After New Year's, I was stunned to find that I would be able to find replacements and train others to assume responsibilities that had been shoved in my face with the Ron Paul campaign. This allowed me to return to focusing on other races in Fort Bend and Texas. An unexpected phone call / email combo came at me from Cynthia Dunbar, whose candidacy I had been completely unaware of until the call. It turns out that the rest of the world had been completely unaware of her candidacy as well.

I have been asked repeatedly, from multiple parties, if I know who prodded or asked Cynthia to make herself a candidate. The answer is - I do not know. I do however, believe that she ran into the ages-old problem of being unable to collect on promised campaign funds, and that had she access to the same budget of a Manlove / Olson / Hrbacek - that she would have made a much stronger showing in this race. Dunbar is widely acknowledged as one of the most well-spoken and presentable female politicians in the State of Texas, and her politics are conservative enough to give even Robert Talton a run for the money. However, with no funds and virtually no campaign staff, my involvement with her campaign was limited to graphic design on a couple of mail pieces.

I think it comes as no surprise to anyone, that Dr. Shelley and Pete Olson ended up in the April runoff, and the interesting story to develop over the next days and weeks, will be when and whom the other 8 candidates endorse. I would not be shocked to see some candidates abstain from endorsing either of the two remaining contestants. However, I would not be shocked to see either Shelley or Olson completely shut out in receiving major candidate endorsements, should they be forthcoming.

Yes, there are two big stories from this race that occurred over the past two months, and I feel that they deserve their own posts. More to follow...

Posted by Chris Elam @ 03/06/08 02:24 PM | Comments (0)

Texas Politics

There were no statewide races of importance to the GOP in the March Primary, save an unimportant challenge to John Cornyn from Larry Kilgore.

On the Democrat side, it was more than humorous to see that the latest darling of the liberal state blogosphere - Rick Noriega - was so ineffective, that he was scrounging for votes all night to avoid the ignominy of facing off in a runoff against perennial spoiler Gene Kelly. Precinct chair Barbara Ann Radnofsky wasn't so fortunate two years ago. Way to go netroots!

The CD22 race will get a subsequent post here later today, so I will skip it for now. I was pleased to see Lyle Larson obtain the GOP nomination rather easily in San Antonio, and was equally pleased to see Dr. Ron Paul win re-election handily over his former supporter, Chris Peden by 40 percentage points. No Democrat races of any significance popped up on my radar screen for the Congressional elections - frankly, I don't think anyone ever cared about Dan Grant outside of some overanxious bloggers at Burnt Orange Report, and unless its a horrible, horrible year for Republicans in this state, I don't see Mike McCaul getting to worked up over a candidate named “Larry Joe.”

On the State Representative slate, I think Tom Craddick scored a slight victory for his coalition of support when all the races are viewed as a whole. Congratulations to my good friends Charlie Howard and Randy Weber for avoiding runoffs in their three-way races. (More on Howard's race to come).

Dan Patrick eked out a victory for Allen Fletcher, once again proving to the entire world, that the politics and policies of an individual legislator matter little to the former Mr. Goeb. No, instead, what he finds important, is whether or not you supported him in his initial Senate run in 2006. Corbin Van Arsdale made the unfortunate mistake of pledging his allegiance to St. Sen. Joe Nixon in that race, and that painted a big red bullseye on his back once Patrick made his splash in Austin.

Altogether too funny to see Borris Miles fall flat on his face after the allegations of his own Namath / Kolber moment. Kevin Bailey went down in defeat too - I can remember helping Charlie Hartland run campaigns against Bailey in that district as far back as 1990. Odd that he had been around so long.

Overall, we wait for November for the final tally. A runoff will occur over in Pasadena / Sagemont for the seat formerly held by Robert Talton. Look for Talton and John Manlove to make endorsements for that race, now that their Congressional campaigns are over. The beneficiaries thereof, can expect to roll to victory as the CD22 race will be the main draw in that runoff contest.

Posted by Chris Elam @ 03/06/08 12:58 PM | Comments (1)

Starting With Presidential Primaries

I really only care to comment about the Republicans since this primary is the one that has mathematically been finished.

Can there be any doubt that the GOP is a party of paternalism, and a “wait your turn” mentality? John McCain was dead in the water as a Presidential candidate, as recently as the holiday season. No political pundit expected him to resurrect his campaign after the shockingly rapid disintegration of his internal staff after fundraising woes appeared during last summer's buildup. Yes, I myself even wondered if the “Straight Talk Express” was hurtling towards the “Bridge Out” sign on the track to the nomination.

But historical trends held true. As has been proven time and again, frontrunner status is the last place that a Presidential candidate wants to find himself the year before the election. Rudy Giuliani was on top for so long, he had nowhere to go but down.

Mitt Romney was too pretty, too fake, and let's call a spade a spade - too Mormon, for conservative evangelical voters.

Mike Huckabee became a default conservative's choice candidate because of his “aww shucks” routine, and his willingness to stand up for his faith.

Fred Thompson proved that hype means nothing if you don't have the internal drive.

Ron Paul was never able to translate the blog comments and internet raised funds into significant delegates. But I truly believe that his impact upon the race will last longer than any of his peers.

Of these major candidates, I believe that McCain won the nomination because voters and the GOP powers that be, anointed him with a shrug of the shoulders and an off-hand remark of “Well, I guess its his turn.”

Of these major candidates, I believe that McCain has the least motivated and amped-up supporters. His base comes from the wing of the party who are good Republican voters, but not the type to work their tails off to promote their candidates.

Of these major candidates, I believe that Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee had the most energetic base of supporters. Ron Paul's base of support, obviously coming from an unheard of amalgamation of youth, independents, anti-war stalwarts, and small-l libertarian Republicans. Mike Huckabee's base of support, coming from the evangelical southern Christians who eked out a victory for Bush in 2000, and are now facing the choice of voting for McCain and later answering for that vote to their God on Judgment Day.

Of these major candidates, I believe that Rudy Giuliani failed the most miserably - failing to live up to his lofty polling numbers in terms of actual voter interest and support. A close second place finish goes to Fred Thompson for proving to be a rather boring, uninteresting, and uninspired candidate after all was said and done with Jay Leno.

Going forward, I have to believe that Huckabee will re-tool and be on the short list of VP candidates for McCain's ticket. I believe that Mitt Romney will challenge John Kerry for Massachusetts Senator. I believe that we have seen the last of Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson. I believe that Ron Paul will take steps to continue educating and looking for his philosophical successor among the crowds of supporters identified in this cycle.

Personally, McCain inspires no confidence in me. I know that he is an abrasive, unlikable man behind the scenes in his professional life. He is too liberal to suit my tastes, but its obvious that our country's pendulum is swinging back toward the left side of the aisle, and McCain may be able to make advantageous gains there.

And that's all I have to say about that.

Posted by Chris Elam @ 03/06/08 12:39 PM | Comments (3)

Let's Recap On All Things Chris Elam...

To pick up where I last left you...

July 2007 marks the date of my last regular posting schedule. Since then, life's been hectic in my world.

Highlights include:

- Christy and I are expecting our first child, due later this summer. We learn the gender in three weeks. I learned about this life-changing fact 15 minutes before I left for my long-anticipated birthday weekend at a rented beach house in Surfside Beach, TX.
- Ron Paul ran for President and U.S. Congress. I helped.
- Christy and I are building a new home.
- I purchased a new truck.
- I attended the Texas GOP Straw Poll in Fort Worth over Labor Day weekend.
- Texas A&M BTHO t.u. in November.
- Texas A&M laid a big turd on the field during the Alamo Bowl in December.
- Agreed to run for precinct chair, before learning that I was moving. Was elected unopposed on Tuesday.
- Worked for a baker's dozen campaigns across the state during the primary cycle.

And that's me in a nutshell. Now let's delve into the topics upon which, you are all anxiously awaiting my say.

Posted by Chris Elam @ 03/06/08 12:18 PM | Comments (1)

Let's Do This Thing

Well shucks. Tom Kirkendall goes down. Professors R Squared goes down. I better end the hiatus.

So officially - I'M BACK.

Posted by Chris Elam @ 03/06/08 12:03 PM | Comments (3)

Monday - January 07, 2008

Quick Catchup

Will Texas Safety Forum make a stunning comeback in 2008? That remains to be seen. For those who wonder what I've been up to:

1) Ron Paul is running for President
2) My wife and I are expecting our first child later this year
3) My best friend now lives in Fort Bend County
4) I saved a lot of money on my car insurance by switching to Geico.

As I have always told the press, GOP brass, and local importants - this blog was / is always near the bottom of my Top 10 daily priorities. All too frequently, I find myself unable to make it past #5 or #6 on the list these days. If and when my time frees back up, perhaps I will be in a position to resurrect my enjoyable little online community.

In showbiz, that's what they call a “teaser”.

Posted by Chris Elam @ 01/07/08 10:31 PM |

Wednesday - August 15, 2007

BREAKING NEWS - St. Rep. Mike O'Day Reportedly To Resign

UPDATE: 8/18 - 4:00pm Well, obviously the rumor mill and buzz factory were incorrect on the end-of-week resignation reports. After initially making this post, I've been contacted by a number of different individuals who have also been hearing the same rumors, as well as an alternative version of the story that O'Day will serve out the rest of the term and then step down. Any press release or further news on the story has yet to be forthcoming from his office, so I'm done commenting on the matter until further news.

*************************

Word out of Austin is that Pearland State Representative Mike O'Day will be resigning his HD29 seat by the end of this week. Dogged by rumors and reports of misconduct and inappropriate behavior (“ungentlemanly personal conduct” as reported by Paul Burka on his blog) during the recent legislative session, the buzz is that O'Day will step down from the seat to save face.

HD29 is a safe Republican seat stretching from Pearland in Brazoria County through western Brazoria County and encompassing all of Matagorda County. Pearland business owner Randy Weber finished second in a runoff to O'Day in January's special election, and would be the prohibitive favorite in another special election. Should the scenario unfold, it would be interesting to see whether or not Weber feels the desire to endure another campaign... that choice will be posed from a number of community and state leaders during the next few days if my sources are correct.

Posted by Chris Elam @ 08/15/07 11:09 PM | Comments (6)

Monday - July 09, 2007

Russell Jones And David Wallace WISH They Had Maiden Names

Covertly sniping at political opponents under a maiden name would make for interesting press releases.

Thankfully, that sort of juvenile behavior is unique to only the most loftily ambitious of political novices.

Posted by Chris Elam @ 07/09/07 09:07 PM | Comments (3)

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